After a slow year in dealmaking during 2024, private equity is eager to re-enter the autism therapy sector. The M&A landscape is ripe for a surge, but that doesn’t mean it will be a season of crowing about deals. With increased economic pressures and shifts in the workforce, technology, and service offerings, the industry is set to move into previously unexplored territory. Drawing insights from top executives and industry trends, here are five key autism therapy industry predictions for 2025.
1. Preparing for Rate Cuts Across the Board
The expansion of autism therapy services, while critical, has led to a sharp increase in claims and payouts, with some data suggesting a 40% rise in appointments between 2022 and 2024. As the market grows, so do the financial pressures on payers, with behavioral health services — particularly autism therapy — seeing an explosive rise in claims. The difficulty lies in determining whether the increase in diagnoses is directly tied to the rise in claims, as hard data on this is scarce. However, the general consensus among industry professionals is that payers will be forced to implement cost-control measures to curb the rising expenses.
Payers, especially Medicaid programs, have few options. Cutting rates for services is one of the most viable solutions, as raising premiums often risks losing clients, a risk that private insurers are reluctant to take. UnitedHealth Group, through Optum, has already begun reducing rates within its Medicaid-contracted business, signaling that others might soon follow. Alongside rate cuts, some payers are using more subtle strategies, like payer ghosting — where claims are ignored or delayed — creating further challenges for providers. Behavioral health services, particularly autism therapy, are becoming battlegrounds where payers are trying to balance cost control with the growing demand for services. This trend is central to many autism therapy industry predictions as cost containment becomes a significant theme.
2. The Growing Role of Registered Behavior Technicians (RBTs)
In recent years, the number of young people entering the workforce directly after high school, bypassing traditional higher education, has been on the rise. This shift, exacerbated by the pandemic and the increasing cost of college education, has created a demand for career paths that don’t require a four-year degree. The role of Registered Behavior Technicians (RBTs) offers a compelling alternative, combining a solid career trajectory with the opportunity to make an impact in healthcare.
As more autism therapy providers seek to address the growing demand for care, RBTs have become an essential part of the workforce. Many providers are now covering the costs for RBT training and certification, making this role even more attractive to young people looking to enter the workforce. The increasing demand for board-certified behavior analysts (BCBAs) also benefits RBTs, as providers are eager to help RBTs advance to higher positions, often with financial assistance.
However, the increasing prevalence of RBTs in the industry is not without its challenges. Despite their proximity to patient care, RBTs are often seen as entry-level employees, which can lead to high burnout rates. This can make other sectors like retail, food service, and logistics — which often require similar education levels — more appealing alternatives. Still, the job stability that comes with healthcare positions, especially in a growing field like autism therapy, makes this a compelling career choice for many. Autism therapy industry predictions for 2025 show that RBTs will continue to play an integral role, but managing their burnout will become a significant challenge.
3. Hidden Deals and the Quiet Resurgence of Private Equity
While the private equity market has been quieter over the past few years due to economic uncertainty, 2025 could see a resurgence of deals within the autism therapy space. Private equity firms are sitting on a significant amount of capital that was accumulated during the pandemic and post-inflation, and they will be looking to deploy this capital into the autism therapy sector. While some deals may be more visible, a significant portion of transactions may be kept under wraps. The economic pressures and shifting dynamics in the market could lead to smaller deals or trade-offs that companies may prefer to keep quiet.
A few notable private equity-backed companies have already begun changing hands. Goldman Sachs Alternatives, for instance, acquired the Center for Social Dynamics, a prominent autism therapy provider, signaling that the market is starting to move again. Similarly, Proven Behavior Solutions, a newer platform, expanded its footprint by acquiring Prism Autism Education & Consultation. However, what’s expected to differentiate 2025 from previous years is the secrecy surrounding some deals. Economic pressures and changing market dynamics may prompt companies to downplay their financial losses or “down rounds,” avoiding public scrutiny. Private equity, which often thrives on discretion, has the means and motivation to keep certain deals hidden. These dynamics are key components of autism therapy industry predictions as mergers and acquisitions take center stage.
4. AI Co-Pilots Will Become Integral to Operations
As the technology landscape evolves, AI tools are expected to play a larger role in autism therapy in 2025. While these tools won’t replace human workers, they are set to become a permanent fixture in the industry, helping to alleviate some of the burdens faced by care providers. Autism therapy providers, in particular, are eager to integrate technology to improve efficiency, manage rising demand, and ensure quality care.
AI co-pilots, in particular, have the potential to revolutionize the industry by supporting Registered Behavior Technicians (RBTs) during their daily tasks. These tools can assist RBTs by offering real-time guidance on care plan implementation, addressing new or unusual circumstances, and ensuring that treatment protocols are followed. As Board-Certified Behavior Analysts (BCBAs) continue to be stretched thin with their managerial and clinical responsibilities, the implementation of AI tools could help bridge the gap. These AI tools will likely be integrated into existing data collection software, making them a seamless addition to the operational workflow of autism therapy providers. Autism therapy industry predictions indicate that AI will become a key asset to providers, improving both patient care and operational efficiency.
Beyond care implementation, AI tools are expected to reduce the burden of back-office tasks, such as billing and documentation, allowing providers to focus more on patient care and less on administrative duties. The use of AI in autism therapy is still in its early stages, but it’s expected to become a key component of the industry’s operational structure in 2025. This shift is one of the significant autism therapy industry predictions for the future.
5. Multidisciplinary Care Providers Will Gain Greater Influence
In the face of rising costs and the complexities of managing multiple care appointments, multidisciplinary autism therapy providers are gaining significant traction. Companies like MySpot and JoyBridge Kids are meeting the growing need for integrated care, offering a holistic approach that combines Applied Behavior Analysis (ABA) therapy with other treatments. This approach not only simplifies care for families but also meets the broader needs of children with autism and related developmental disorders.
These multidisciplinary providers are likely to attract greater investment and attention from both private equity firms and health plans. By offering a more comprehensive range of services, these organizations can create a more stable business model, diversifying revenue streams and lessening the uncertainty that comes with providing a narrower range of services. As these providers scale, they may become the industry standard, setting a new direction for autism therapy care. Autism therapy industry predictions show that multidisciplinary providers will be key players in shaping the future of care.
Private equity firms are particularly interested in multidisciplinary providers because of their potential to serve high-need populations that are often overlooked by single-service providers. By expanding their service offerings, these organizations can attract a broader patient base and position themselves as leaders in the autism therapy market. This trend highlights one of the most prominent autism therapy industry predictions for 2025.
Conclusion: A Year of Change and Innovation
As we look ahead to 2025, the autism therapy industry is poised for significant changes. From economic pressures leading to rate cuts and hidden deals to the growing importance of RBTs and AI co-pilots, the industry will continue to evolve and adapt. Multidisciplinary providers will likely emerge as key players, offering a more integrated approach to autism care. While challenges remain, the opportunities for growth and innovation in the autism therapy sector are abundant. Providers who can navigate these changes and leverage new technologies will be well-positioned to thrive in 2025 and beyond, making these autism therapy industry predictions more than just a forecast but a roadmap for the future.
